Get Osama? Are you high? I like living.
The October surprise is highly unlikely to be the surrender or death of Osama Bin Laden or an attack on Iran.
Why?
The US doesn't have the strength to attack Iran and stay in Iraq. Any increase in the tempo of operations in Iraq could mean a countrywide rebellion. The British and other allies would be forced to leave Iraq, crippling US force protection there.
As for Osama, you going to Waziristan to get him? Musharraf sure as shit isn't. He just told the world that he was blackmailed into fighting with the US. You think he has any incentive to hand over Osama and then die in the process? I think not.
I mean, anything is possible, but even Bush, well the sane people around him realize that the US hasn't come close to making a case against Iran. And no matter how odious Iran's powerless president is, we ensured his election. Besides, Iranians are of a like mind on nuclear weapons, they want them. If that's an October surprise, it's going to be one on Bush.
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